2007 Election Post Mortem

First off, let me apologize to my readers for not being able to write in this blog as I have been quite busy campaigning for some local candidates. I know that my topic might already be a bit late in the day but since I have been previously writing about politics, I feel that I ought to share my "take" on the recently-concluded elections.

The 2007 elections was generally a "dull" affair in Western Visayas because there were only a few hotly-contested posts. There were no dramatic or surprising upsets (like the one by Fr. Panlilio in Pampanga) and in most places, the results were already foregone conclusion. In Iloilo City for example, Congressman Raul Gonzalez, Jr. and Mayor Jerry Treñas were reelected as many expected. In Iloilo Province, Governor Niel Tupas easily toppled his opponent Vice Governor Armada and all Tupas family members who ran for office have won: Board Member Niel "Jun Jun" Tupas, Jr. is now 5th District Congressman, his brother Raul was reelected Mayor of Barotac Viejo and the Governor's youngest son, Nielex won as Councilor of Iloilo City (despite the fact that Iloilo City has never been a Tupas bailiwick). For more details, see election results in Iloilo City and Iloilo province here

The same can be said about the elections in Capiz, Negros Occidental, Antique, Aklan and Guimaras. Majority of the incumbent LGU officials faced only "token" candidates and almost all reelectionist Governors and Mayors in the region won. The same is also true for the congressional races, as a quick scan of the winners will bear out:

Aklan - Lone District - Florencio Miraflores, LP (reelectionist)
Capiz
1st District - Antonio del Rosario, LP (3rd term Roxas City mayor)
2nd District - Fredenil H. Castro, LP (reelectionist)
Iloilo City - Lone District - Raul Gonzalez Jr., Lakas CMD (reelectionist)
Iloilo
1st District - Janette Garin, Lakas - CMD (reelectionist)
2nd District - Judy Syjuco, LP (reelectionist)
3rd District - Art Defensor, Lakas - CMD (reelectionist)
4th District - Ferj Biron, Lakas - CMD (reelectionist)
5th District - Niel Tupas, Jr., LP (defeated the brother of Rep. Rolex Suplico)
Negros Occidental
1st District - Julio Ledesma IV, Lakas-CMD (reelectionist)
2nd District - Alfredo Marañon III, Kampi (reelectionist)
3rd District - Carlos Lacson, Lakas-CMD-UNA (reelectionist)
4th District - Jeffrey Ferrer, NPC (anointed by Cojuangco Family)
5th District - Ignacio Arroyo Jr., Kampi-UNA (reelectionist)
6th District - Genaro Alvarez, NPC-UNA (reelectionist)
Bacolod City - Monico Puentevella, Lakas-CMD (reelectionist)

Of course, there were intermittent sparks. The race for the 5th district of Iloilo between Jun Jun Tupas and Col. Boy Suplico was hotly contested while the fight for the Lone District of Bacolod City between incumbent Puentevella and Vice Mayor Novero was also tight. Also, 3rd term Dumangas Mayor Rolly Distura surprisingly made a spirited campaign against billionaire Congressman Ferj Biron (4th District, Iloilo) but in the end, he lost by a large margin. These were the only "exciting" races in Region 6 this past elections.

While many Manila opinion-makers wanted the 2007 elections to be a referendum on President Arroyo's leadership, I observed that majority of the voters chose candidates (at least on the local level) based on their "personal traits" and not based on their affiliation with or opposition to GMA. In my opinion, the recently-concluded elections basically brings us back to where we were three years ago: a highly pro-administration House of Representatives which doesn't want to impeach GMA and an anti-GMA Senate which hopes to impeach GMA. And with less than 40 opposition congressmen elected, the prospect of impeaching the President has become practically nil. But with the addition of at least 8 opposition senators, we can expect a more "fiscalizing" Senate. So I guess the message of the people to their leaders is this: "We don't want GMA removed, but we want her every action closely guarded and scrutinized."

The Die is Cast!

Alea Jacta Est! (The Die is Cast!). These were the words that Julius Caesar reportedly uttered when he crossed the Rubicon, the river that divided Gaul from Italy, to wage war against General Pompey and the Senate of Rome. By proclaiming “the die is cast,” he coined a phrase that would forever mean that there is no turning back. For many Filipino politicians, March 29 was their Rubicon as they struggled to beat the deadline for the filing of their Certificates of Candidacy in COMELEC.

In many parts of Western Visayas, the fight will mainly be between Lakas and Kampi - parties both identified with the administration. The Liberal Party is expected to put a spirited fight in some areas, particularly in Iloilo province and Capiz while Danding's NPC is the dominant party in Negros Occidental province. Here is the list of candidates that I gathered so far:

ILOILO CITY
Congressional Race: Rep. Raul Gonzalez, Jr. (LAKAS) vs. former Mayor Mansing Malabor (UNO) vs. former Councilor Benjie Gengos (LP-Drilon Wing).
Mayoralty Race: Mayor Jerry Treñas (LAKAS) vs. former No. 1 Councilor Joshua Alim (UNO)

ILOILO PROVINCE
Gubernatorial Race: Gov. Niel Tupas (LP-Drilon Wing) vs. Vice Gov. Obet Armada (LAKAS).
Congressional Race:
(1st District) - Rep. Janette Garin vs. Miag-ao Mayor Gerardo Flores;
(2nd District) - Rep. Judy Syjuco vs. Board Member Celia Capadosa;
(3rd District) - Rep. Art Defensor vs. Atty. Zafiro "Boy" Lauron;
(4th District) - Rep. Ferj Biron vs. Dumangas Mayor Rolly Distura;
(5th District) - Col. Enrique "Boy" Suplico vs. Board Member Niel "Jun Jun" Tupas, Jr.

AKLAN
Gubernatorial Race: Gov. Carlito Marquez (Tibyog) vs. Mabeth Mobo-Garcia (PDP-Laban) vs. Vicky Ramos vs. Dr. Karen Ambito-Galvan (PMP)
Congressional Race: Rep. Florencio "Joeben" Miraflores (Tibyog) vs. Atty. Anthony Acevedo

CAPIZ
Gubernatorial Race: Vice Governor Vic Tanco (LP-Drilon Wing) vs. (no info so far)
Congressional Race:
(1st District) - Roxas City Mayor Tony del Rosario (LP-Drilon Wing) vs. Roxas City Vice Mayor Alan Celino (Kampi) vs. ex-Gov. Jose "Ting" Borda
(2nd District) - Cong. Fredenil Castro vs. Engr. Ernesto Bulilan
Roxas City Mayoralty Race: Governor Vic Bermejo (LP-Drilon Wing) vs. Teresa Hontiveros-Almalbis (Kampi)

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
Gubernatorial Race: Gov. Joseph Marañon vs. (no info so far)
Congressional Race:
(1st District) - Rep. Tranquilino Carmona (NPC) vs. former Rep. Jules Ledesma
(2nd District) - Rep. Alfredo Marañon III (NPC) vs. (no info so far)
(3rd District) - Rep. Jose Carlos Lacson vs. Reynaldo Depasucat
(4th District) - La Carlota Mayor Jeffrey Ferrer (NPC) vs. Jorge Camposano
(5th District) - Rep. Iggy Arroyo (Kampi) vs. former Rep. Apolinario "Jun" Lozada (LAKAS) vs. Ernesto Librado (Ind.)
(Lone District, Bacolod City) - Rep. Monico Puentebella (Kampi) vs. Vice Mayor Renecito Novero (NPC) vs. Andy Hagad (Ind.)
Mayoralty Race:
BACOLOD CITY - Mayor Evelio Leonardia vs. Retired Bacolod PNP Chief Vicente Ponteras
SILAY CITY - Mayor Carlo Gamban vs. Jose "Oti" Montelibano

The Iloilo City Opposition Slate

Here is the final opposition slate in Iloilo City:

For Congressman ..... former Mayor Mansueto "Mansing" Malabor
For Mayor ................ former Councilor Joshua Alim
For Vice Mayor ....... former Councilor Linda Liberiaga
For Councilor:

1. Bert Liberiaga
2. Perla Zulueta
3. Victor Facultad
4. Rolando Dabao
5. Dan Cartagena
6. Boyet Rentoy
7. Joseph Nava
8. Nardy Villanueva
9. Johnny Young
10. Lex Tupas
11. Felix Muchada
12. Florencio Yap

Reports say that the opposition will file their certificates of candidacy on March 29, the last day of filing. Among the notables in the slate are Lex Tupas (son of Governor Niel Tupas), Bert Liberiaga (the husband of vice mayoralty bet Linda Liberiaga), Perla Zulueta (a local mediaperson and incumbent Councilor), Rolando Dabao (likewise a former Councilor and a close relative of actor Ricky Davao) and Victor Facultad (the city's former Vice Mayor and adopted son of the late Iloilo kingpin Nanding Lopez).

It seems that Ma'am Linda, who earlier declared her intention to contest the city's lone congressional seat, has given up on her quest and saw fit to just slide down to Vice Mayor citing that the campaign funding support promised by Mark Jimenez had not arrived. It also seems that Drilon's boy for Congress, Benjie Gengos, has been left out in the cold. Although isolated from the Malabor group, Atty. Gengos is insisting that he is the "anointed one" and refuses to give in to Malabor. Senator Drilon, who is reportedly on a trip abroad, should return posthaste to settle this issue once and for all. It does not look good to see the local opposition bickering over the "spoils" even before the egg is hatched.

Rambulan Na!

Congressman Jun Gonzalez and Mayor Jerry Treñas are scheduled to file their certificate of candidacies this Saturday, March 24, together with the rest of their ticket. A mass is scheduled for the candidates, their families and core supporters at 9:00 am at the Sta. Maria-Ateneo de Iloilo Chapel. Afterwards, the group will all together troop to the COMELEC office to symbolize their unity. The Gonzalez-Treñas ticket is comprised of the following:

For Congressman - Raul Gonzalez, Jr.
For Mayor - Jerry Treñas
For Vice Mayor - Jed Patrick Mabilog
For Councilor
Julienne "Jam Jam" Baronda (reelectionist)
Joe Espinosa III (reelectionist)
Armand Parcon (reelectionist)
Eduardo Peñaredondo (reelectionist)
Erwin Plagata (reelectionist)
Ely Estante (reelectionist)
Jeffrey Ganzon (reelectionist)
Lyndon Acap
Bobby Divinagracia
Edward Yee
Tony Pesina
Eldrid Antiquiera

With regards to the opposition in Iloilo City, reports say that they are scheduled to file their certificate of candidacies on the last day of filing, March 29. But the word is that they are still fighting among themselves and are leaderless (read more here). As I have reported here previously, the local opposition had a caucus with their leading light Senator Frank Drilon at the Sarabia Manor Hotel to decide who among them will run for what position. In that meeting, Drilon named lawyer Benjie Gengos (a person known to be especially loyal to him) as his bet for Congressman. But the other leading opposition figures in that caucus (namely, Joshua Alim, Dan Cartagena, Rex Rico and Mansing Malabor), seeing that Gengos is the least popular and the "weakest" among them, refused to abide by Drilon's decision and decided to push ahead with their own slate. Nothing is final yet but it seems the opposition ticket will be comprised of the following:

For Congressman - Former Mayor Mansueto Malabor
For Mayor - Former No. 1 Councilor Joshua Alim

The opposition slate for Vice Mayor and the 12 Council seats has not been firmed up yet, but the names of former Councilor Perla Zulueta, ex-Vice Mayor Vic Facultad and Dan Cartagena are being floated as possible vice mayoralty bets.

With less than 10 days to go till the March 29 deadline, the local opposition must get its act together fast. Otherwise, they will once again be massacred by the well-oiled Gonzalez-Treñas machinery in Iloilo City this coming 2007 elections.