Wala Ko Gapati sa mga Survey-Survey Nga Ina

I sometimes get the feeling that elections are held just so we can find out if the surveys are correct. Just a couple of months ago Noynoy Aquino enjoyed a seemingly insurmountable 10 percentage point lead over his nearest rival Villar (leading me to think that finally this time we will have a majority-elected President). But early this month Pulse Asia came out with a survey showing that Aquino and Villar were in a virtual tie at 37% - 35% respectively which has shaken the morale of Noynoy supporters and revealed the cracks in their campaign headquarters. Now, another survey conducted by TNS (Taylor Nelson Sofres) showed that Noynoy still enjoys a commanding lead at 41% vis-a-vis Villar's 30%. Meanwhile in Iloilo City, opinion surveys conducted by the local poll outfit Random Access show Mayor Trenas enjoying a comfortable lead over Congressman Raul Gonzalez Jr. (for the congressional race) and Vice Mayor Jed Mabilog having a slight lead over Secretary Raul Gonzalez Sr. (for the mayoral race).

People say that surveys tend to be self-fulfilling but the record shows this is quite not true. Miriam Defensor-Santiago in 1992 was a survey topnotcher but lost to Ramos while Fernando Poe, another survey favourite, lost to Gloria in 2004. Erap was the only consistent survey leader who won. Nevertheless, surveys do have a considerable influence on peoples’ minds, leading in Senator Gordon (a presidentiable consistently lagging behind the surveys), in a fit of pique, to utter “eh di wag na lang tayo mag-eleksyon. Magpa-survey na lang tayo!” Nearer to home, “wala ko gapati sa mga survey survey nga ina,” is a common comment we hear from local candidates who are not faring well in opinion surveys.

I do not have the actual records but I think no one will argue with me if I say that during the past two elections there has been no survey in Iloilo City that showed Congressman Gonzalez Junior in the lead. In 2004 practically all local surveys predicted Malabor to win over him while in 2007 the opinion polls favored either Dan Cartagena or Malabor. And mind you, their "leads" were virtually and statistically insurmountable, some ridiculously running up to 30-plus percentage points! The same is happening today wherein Mayor Trenas and Vice Mayor Mabilog are being bruited about by Random Access as the "men to beat" this 2010 elections. But contrary to survey expectations, Gonzalez Junior has won time and again (by a slim margin in 2004 and with a 45,000-vote majority margin during the last 2007 elections). So how could have Random Access missed this?

One possible explanation is their methodology. Most if not all survey outfits usually use the one-on-one interview method: surveyors (usually pretty college undergrads) go to your home to ask you a list of questions and take down your answers. This method does not capture the true essence of elections. On election day, no one from Comelec will go to your house, give you your ballot, take your vote and bring your ballot to the precinct so that it can be counted. On election day you have to wake up early, shower and dress up, walk or motor to the public school where your precinct is located, and once you've found your precinct, line up under the intense heat of the summer sun in order to cast your vote. Thinking is very different from acting - saying that you like someone is a far cry from actually voting for that person because it involves more effort. Hence, to gauge the "absolute truth" survey firms should revise and devise their methodology that actually simulate actual election day conditions.

What probably really happened in Iloilo City back in 2007 and 2004 was that most of the people who said they will vote for Malabor or Cartagena decided that it is not worth their while to go out and just decided to stay at home. It is that or the survey firms were simply paid by politicians to tweak their results.

This is why so-called opinion surveys are no longer taken seriously by the people of Iloilo. Not that they do not believe in surveys per se, but it is because previous elections have proven firms like Random Access to be wrong. People have become wary of surveys and see it as another mind-conditioning tool used by politicians to further their candidacies.

Who is the True "Boss" of Iloilo City?

Today marks the start of the official campaign period for national candidates. Unofficially, everybody knows that the campaign season started months ago what with national candidates swamping the airwaves with their infomercials and local candidates plastering the streets with their posters. This 30-day period (Feb 9 - Mar 9) is of vital importance to national candidates because after this "window" local candidates will start focusing on their own campaigns and will no longer be able to pay attention to national candidates.

At this point, Senators Manny Villar, Noynoy Aquino and Secretary Gibo Teodoro have the strongest "presence" in Iloilo City. Senator Villar has been studiously courting the Ilonggo vote and has in fact claimed to have Ilonggo roots. He has constantly visited the city and even had his daughter Camille Villar crowned as Jaro Fiesta queen a couple of years back. His expensive billboards and posters are plastered all over the city, his infomercials saturate the local airwaves and, in a brilliant move, was able to convince Mayor Trenas to run under his ticket. Senator Aquino is also popular, although he lacks "presence" in the city - I have yet to see a Noynoy poster or hear his ad in local media. Although a far third, Gibo Teodoro is enjoying a strong "presence" because he is being carried to the hilt by the Gonzalez machinery. His poster is displayed prominently and his name mentioned constantly in every Gonzalez "pulong-pulong." The city's student population also seems to be rooting for Gibo.

As for the vice presidential race, Senator Mar Roxas enjoys a significant lead over his closest opponent Senator Loren Legarda both in "presence" and popularity. Prominent are his posters and ads, and he enjoys the support of local politicians and civic leaders. Even Iloilo City Mayor Trenas, who is with the Nacionalista, has said that he will be supporting Mar instead of Villar's running mate Legarda.

After nine years of "political peace," local elections in Iloilo City once again promises to be an exciting one with former allies vying against each other. For the congressional race, Mayor Jerry Trenas is facing incumbent Raul Gonzalez Junior while Vice Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog is going against Secretary Raul Gonzalez Senior for mayor. A "third force," headed by Undersecretary Larry Jamora (for mayor) and former Mayor Mansing Malabor (for congressman), promises to make the electoral fight really exciting. What makes it more interesting is the convoluted political set-up of the Trenas-Mabilog alliance. While allied, Trenas (who is running under Villar's Nacionalista Party) and Mabilog (who is under the Liberal Party) are not only supporting different "presidentiables" but also different vice mayoral and council candidates - Trenas is supporting his brother-in-law Councilor Joe Espinosa III while Mabilog is supporting the beauteous Councilor Jam Jam Baronda. If this is not enough, the indomitable Mel Carreon is also running ("only" for vice mayor this time) under the LLP party. When I asked him what LLP stands for, Carreon replied: "Laban Laban Perde."

Running under the LAKAS-CMD banner, the Gonzalez group at present enjoys the support of majority of barangay captains (158 out of 180 barangays), incumbent kagawads, ex-barangay officials and the city's organized urban poor. As the incumbent mayor, Trenas has the resources and coercive powers of City Hall backing him while Vice Mayor Mabilog has his formidable "movie-star" popularity and youthful appeal to bank on.

Passions are high and the local political atmosphere is truly acrimonious. Mayor Trenas fired the first salvo when, last November, he fired all the casuals in City Hall and replaced them with people loyal only to him, probably to demonstrate his powers as mayor. He also "failed to send" tickets to the Gonzalezes during the recent Dinagyang. In response, the pro-Gonzalez barangay captains in City Proper decided to boycott the festivities to protest this most glaring insult and hied off to a beach resort in Oton in the midst of the merrymaking. The children of Trenas were also shooed away by a Gonzalez partisan (incidentally an off-duty policeman) when they tried to distribute relief goods in a squatter colony in Barangay Nabitasan which was gutted by fire last month. The political mudslinging has even spilled over to YouTube (see previous entry below).

Now, City Hall employees are grumbling because their salaries have not yet been released, perhaps due to the COA report finding P3 million in unliquidated cash advances. According to radio reports, a certain Cristopher Cheng (or Tieng?), an employee at the City Treasurer's Office, is missing. The "Casuals as Casualties" and the City Hall salary debacle have seriously dampened morale and unless addressed at once, will prove to be Mayor Jerry's undoing.

As a result, the comfortable lead which Mayor Trenas enjoyed over his rival Congressman Gonzalez Junior is slowly being whittled away by recent events. By trying to show who is the true "boss" of Iloilo City, Mayor Jerry is unwittingly digging his own grave.

In Denial: "Indi Agi si Jed" Suno Kay Marimar

Ari pa isa.... equally hilarious...

Books, Books, Books

Late last year my wife received a P10,000 book grant for journalists from the Freidrich Ebert Stiftung and, since I am an avid book reader, she asked me to tag along to "help" her buy books. I ended up choosing most of the titles. To me, it was a most pleasant surprise and possibly the nicest Christmas gift anybody could give, and at the end of our 4-hour book-buying binge at Fully Booked-Rockwell we ended up with a stack as tall as my 5 year old son. As such, I was in no mood to write these past weeks since I have been busy devouring the books. So far I have only finished reading three of them.

"Blackwater: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army" is the story of Eric Prince and his elite corps of mercenaries. Eric Prince is quite a character: although he came from a rich family (he inherited about $500 million when his father died) he enlisted in the US Armed Forces joining the US Navy SEAL Team 8. When his wife died prematurely he was forced to leave the service to take care of his two daughters but, in his desire to continue serving his country, formed Blackwater together with his former US Navy SEALs colleagues. He bought 7,000 acres of swampland in North Carolina (the swamp's water appears black hence their company's name) and proceeded to build the largest and most modern military training facilities in the world. At first, Blackwater only trained American SWAT teams, FBI agents and other "war on terror" operatives but soon their company won government contracts to provide security for American diplomats and soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. Blackwater became world famous when in March 2004 four of its "private contractors" met grisly deaths at the hands of a mob in Fallujah, Iraq.

After reading the book, I find it worrisome that America has found a way to continue to fight its wars of economic expansion by "privatizing" war. Although the American public has become soft (not to mention flabby), the American government has devised an ingenious scheme to contract out its wars to people who are willing to fight for money. Now, with or without American public support (which was its downfall in Vietnam), the US government can still wage a war by employing mercenaries. As of 2006 according to the book, there are already more "private contractors" (180,000) than soldiers (160,000) in Iraq. Hence, nowhere has the adage "war is business" more true than in Iraq. Blackwater contractors get paid handsomely (around US$15,000 a month for most) and Eric Prince's recruiters have been scouring the world for top-notch military operatives who want to make a fast buck. They have periodically been raiding the armies of Third World countries like Chile, Nepal and yes, the Philippines. In fact, according to the book, Prince was initially planning to set up a training facility in Subic Bay but local political opposition deterred him from doing so.

Another good book is The Imperial Cruise: A Secret Histroy of Empire and War authored by James Bradley of "Flags of our Fathers" fame. The plot is easy enough: in the summer of 1905, President Theodore Roosevelt sent the largest diplomatic mission to Southeast Asia led by his Secretary of War William Howard Taft and his beautiful, aristocratic daughter Alice Roosevelt whom Bradley dubbed as "America's Princess." Their ship's ultimate destination is the Philippines, then America's newly acquired colony, but like tourists they made sightseeing side-trips to Japan, China, Korea. But far from being just a congressional junket, the trip symbolized America's "debut" as a world colonial power and while the congressmen and senators were busy seeing the sights Secretary Taft entered into secret negotiations and agreements with the countries they visited which ultimately shaped American policies to this day. For example, it is not common knowledge today that it was President Roosevelt who planted the seeds of Japanese expansionism by encouraging Japan to militarize and assume a "big brother" role in Asia. Roosevelt wanted the Japanese to check the Russian advance in Asia, and he assured them that America will not stop them if they moved on Korea and China as long as they don't touch the Philippines, its colony at that time. As things turned out, Japan became too greedy and they did not stop in Manchuria, thus paving the way for World War II. Amidst all the political intrigue, Alice Roosevelt on the side was having an affair with one of the congressmen in the delegation. President Roosevelt promptly married the two once they set foot back in America.

The book "Imperial Cruise" is very entertaining and easy to read and I would not be surprised if they make a movie out of it since the book has all the ingredients for a good Hollywood movie: political intrigue, conflict, romance (on the high seas at that), etc. I think Angelina Jolie would make a very good portrayal of the tempestuous and headstrong Alice Roosevelt.

I have been wanting to buy In Our Image: America's Empire in the Philippines by Stanley Karnow for the longest time. After reading it I think the book is perhaps the most balanced and coherent overview of Philippine history ever written by a foreigner. But Filipino nationalists will perhaps not like Karnow's interpretation of Philippine history: Karnow's thesis is that the Philippines as a colony is luckier than most other countries in Asia and most especially Africa which were colonized by Western powers. Karnow claims that viewed from a wider perspective, the Philippine's colonial experience under Spanish and American rule was almost benign and was not as brutally exploitative as the French in Indochina or the British in India or the British in Africa. This is because, as Karnow put it, whereas the British, French, Japan acquired colonies because their home countries lacked natural resources, Americans have everything they need in Continental America. To illustrate his point, Karnow cites the fact that Philippine sugar initially met strong opposition from American beet producers in Congress. In fact, the American Congress and the American people never wanted the Philippines and by the 1920s President Roosevelt already wanted to grant the Filipinos their independence but President Quezon demurred and asked for more time. As such, the Philippines is the only colony who refused independence while in other countries patriots died in the hundreds trying to win their own freedom. Even the Spanish conquistadors, finding no large amount of gold or silver in the islands largely left the natives by themselves and did not exploit them as much as the natives in Mexico and Peru (which had large silver deposits).

All in all, "In Our Image" is a well-researched book full of interesting anecdotes and juicy tidbits and I believe Karnow truly deserves the Pulitzer Prize. It is the best book ever written about the Philippines "love-hate" relationship with America.