Emily Lopez is Now Villar Point Person in Iloilo City

Apropos to my column last week entitled “No More Villar Funds for Team Uswag,” my highly placed source in Manila called me up to issue a clarification that while it is true that Senator Manny Villar will no longer give funds directly to Mayor Jerry Treñas, this does not mean that he is abandoning Iloilo City for Noynoy Aquino or Gibo Teodoro all together. The source explained that the Nacionalista election budget for Iloilo City will now be entrusted to former Guimaras Congresswoman Emily Lopez and that she will be the one to determine the most politically-effective way of distributing the funds. So what I wrote earlier that Team Uswag will not be receiving any funds from Villar is not entirely correct. Strictly speaking, Mayor Treñas’s “Team Uswag” may still be able to receive some campaign funds from the Nacionalista Party provided that they can convince Inday Emily that Villar will be getting “his money’s worth.”

It is said that Congresswoman Cynthia Villar, the wife of the Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar, is “more comfortable” with Inday Emily because they are very close friends (which they developed during their stints in Congress). At one time, their children Camille Villar (a Jaro Fiesta queen) and Tito Lopez (her consort) were even romantically linked. Besides, as my source pointed out, the Lopezes are not running for any electoral post. This means that, unlike Mayor Treñas (who is running for congressman), the Villars could trust the Lopezes not to use their money to promote their own personal candidacies at their expense. It is a fact that local politicians tend to put themselves first before the national. That is just the nature of Philippine politics. To better illustrate, I attended a Team Uswag “pulong pulong” in one of the barangays in Arevalo and I noted that the main focus of both the candidates and the audience are local, not national, politics. The name of Senator Villar was hardly ever mentioned by Mayor Treñas. His running-mate Joe III Espinosa and the rest of his slate likewise did not really push for their standard bearer or the senatorial candidates of the Nacionalista Party (and I doubt it very much if they memorize all the senatoriables in their party). Mostly, the Team Uswag candidates talked about themselves. Some took the opportunity to “clarify” issues and answer the various “black propaganda” being hurled against them while others took potshots at the Gonzalezes (i.e calling them “Ampatuans” and calling Dra. Pacita “the white lady”). They call it, in local parlance, "salbaranay lawas" (roughly means; "each man for himself").

If they hope to see the color of Villar’s money, Team Uswag has to reformat its “pulong pulongs” to make it more “Villar-centric.” In other words, each candidate must “push” harder for Villar i.e. mentioning him in all their speeches, distributing his flyers during house-to-house sorties, defend him against all the black propaganda, etc. Team Treñas cannot continue adopting their present “lackadaisical” attitude towards Villar and expect to receive something from him come election day. As they say, “No work, No Pay.” In fact, Inday Emily might just decide to give the money direct to the barangay captains because, since they are not running for office, can be relied upon to really focus on Villar and campaign hard for his victory here in Iloilo City. Moreover, Emily Lopez can probably attract more barangay captains into the Villar fold by adopting a “pang ‘national’ lang ni, wala ni ya labot ang “local”strategy. In truth, Senator Villar could have gotten more political support in Iloilo City if he just remained neutral and did not take sides in the local Treñas versus Gonzalez fight. It is now very apparent that Villar took the “wrong” side, as last Tuesday’s “Mother of All Rallies” at Freedom Grandstand organized by the Gonzalezes for Gibo Teodoro bears out. Local newspapers estimated the crowd to have reached 20,000 at its peak.

Not to be outdone, a day after the mammoth Gibo rally Team Uswag announced that they will also be organizing a “grand rally” for Villar and his senatorial candidates at the Jaro Plaza gym on Friday. Brimming with bravado, they bragged that they will equal or even surpass the 20,000 crowd turn-out at the Gibo rally. But on Thursday news came out that Senator Villar is no longer coming and that his wife Cynthia and his senatorial candidates will be the only ones arriving to grace the rally. When Friday finally came, the purported “grand rally” has been downgraded to only a “leader’s meeting.” Only about 5,000 warmbodies came. None of the Nacionalista Party stalwarts arrived and, aside from Team Uswag candidates, the only other “notable” or “important personality” who graced the affair was Emily Lopez. So in a span of just three days the activity they so grandiosely billed as the “Grand Rally of the Nacionalista Party” was downgraded into a mere “Leaders’ Meeting with Emily Lopez.”

In the aftermath of the flop, the local coffeeshops are abuzz with questions as to why the Villars snubbed the Team Uswag rally in last Friday. Team Uswag supporters (and opponents alike) are wondering why the Villars are seemingly upset and distrustful of Mayor Treñas that they appointed Emily Lopez as their point person in Iloilo City. Is it because Mayor Treñas reportedly requested one million pesos from the Villar couple to defray the cost of last Friday’s aborted “grand rally?”

“Means, Motive and Opportunity” is Key to Solving Trenas Twin Bombing Case

In Philippine criminal jurisprudence, we have what we call the “three elements of crime” principle. These are, namely: means, motive and opportunity. “Means” means the ability of the perpetrator to commit the crime, “motive” is the underlying reason why the person committed the crime and “opportunity” means that the defendant had the opportunity to commit the crime and took it. Unlike in the movies, establishing that the perpetrator had the “means” (i.e. a handgun, a knife) and the “motive” (i.e. monetary gain, sexual gratification) is usually not enough to convince a judge to issue a guilty verdict. Veteran lawyers will tell you that the presence of one of these three elements is not, in and of itself, sufficient to establish a guilty verdict in any court of law. To guarantee a conviction, a lawyer must not only be able to establish “means” and “motive” but must also provide incontrovertible evidence that the defendant had the opportunity to commit the crime and that he actually acted upon the opportunity that presented itself.

Today every Tom, Dick and Harry in Iloilo City has his own take on the Trenas Twin Bombing Case. Depending on who you talk to, each has his or her own interpretation of the case. Pro-Gonzalez people will tell you that the recent spate of grenade bombings is nothing more than a case of “bomba me” while Trenas partisans are fully convinced that they are being terrorized by goons of the opposing camp. The funny thing is that most of these so-called “legal opinions” are based not really on the hard facts and empirical evidence but more on political convictions and personal allegiances. Thus, these so-called “legal opinions” can be dismissed entirely as mere speculations. To arrive at a better and more intelligent understanding of the Trenas Grenade Case, I would like to analyze it by applying the “three elements of crime” principle.

First, the "means." Everyone in Iloilo City knows that both Gonzalez and Trenas have the means to procure a hand grenade and the financial wherewithal to pay someone to throw it. Both camps have a surfeit of scary-looking men of obviously ex-military background hovering around them every time they make the kapihan rounds and go house-to-house campaigning. In addition to the two policemen assigned as their official security detail, Mayor Trenas has in fact four (4) ex-Marines guarding his person while Secretary Gonzalez also has his own security complement comprised of former military and law enforcement men. And while we’re at it, we can actually point to many other personalities in Iloilo City aside from Trenas, Gonzalez and Jamora that have the means to procure a grenade and the goons to throw it.

Second, the “motive.” Everyone is in agreement that the motive for the grenade attacks is political. According to the Trenas camp, the grenade attacks were perpetrated by the Gonzalezes to sow terror and intimidate their supporters while the Gonzalez camp have been pushing the thesis that the two incidents were nothing more than a case of “bomba me.” When faced with equally convincing claims, police investigators usually look at who so has benefited from the crime to determine motive. And ironic as it sounds, upon deeper analysis, the one who has actually benefited from the grenade attacks is the “victim” himself, Mayor Trenas. From the very start, Trenas wanted Iloilo City to be put under Comelec control and he had been labelling the Gonzalezes as the “Ampatuans of Iloilo City.” In fact, the Trenas property bombings have only served to embolden their supporters and they even gained public sympathy for their plight. It has given them a way to convert their flagging campaign into some sort of moral crusade. Is it just mere coincidence that subsequent events tended to not only to confirm this depiction of Trenas of the Gonzalezes but has made putting under Comelec control feasible? I don’t think so. As such, to solve the case the ICPO must also investigate people in the Trenas camp because they also have a very strong motive for committing the crime and that is nothing less than their political survival in Iloilo City.

So far we have established that both Gonzalez and Trenas have the means and the motive to commit the crime. Now let’s analyze who had the “opportunity” to do it. This is where police forensics and investigative skills come into play to catch the culprit. The initial SOCO investigation stated that the safety lever of the grenade was recovered within the walls of the Trenas ancestral property in Molo. The safety lever found inside the Trenas property is proof positive that the perpetrator did his dastardly deed from within the property walls because, as any ROTC graduate knows, the safety lever usually pops when you pull the pin and it usually falls right were the person throws the grenade from. Right now there are several attempts to muddle this fact in the local media but news accounts of the incident in national media (i.e. ABS CBN and Philippine Daily Inquirer) is quite clear: the safety lever was indeed found inside the Trenas property walls. I am pointing this out because I believe the safety lever is the key to solving the case. It is the “smoking gun” so to speak, the strongest empirical evidence that the grenade attacks were staged.

A cursory look at the sprawling Trenas ancestral house in Molo would show that it is surrounded by a high cement wall (about eight to ten feet in height plus a wired fence on top) with a vacant lot immediately in front of the property. The property is situated near a very busy street (in the vicinity of Hotel del Rio and John B. Lacson Colleges) and there are road construction workers (the drainage system in that area is being repaired) encamped 24/7 at the said vacant lot. Thus, the Gonzalezes had no “opportunity” because it would have been virtually impossible for a Gonzalez henchman to climb the high perimeter fence, throw the grenade, then scale back up the wall fast enough not to be blown by his own grenade, and coolly escape without being seen by anyone in the area. The only person who is capable of doing that is a ninja, and we all know that ninjas are just a figment of movie fantasy.

I would like to offer a more plausible theory to our police investigators. It could be that the simple reason why no one has seen the perpetrator is because the grenade thrower ran inside, not outside, the Trenas ancestral home. And with the recent eyewitness testimony of a taxi driver pointing to the security guard of Carlos Bakeshop as the one who lobbed the grenade, a pattern emerges which points to the Trenas Grenade Case as nothing but a “bomba me” plot designed to win public sympathy and ensure their electoral victory.

No More Villar Funds for Team Uswag

Unbeknownst to many, Nacionalista presidential candidate Manny Villar slipped in and out of Iloilo City last week. The purpose of his visit was not known as there was no big rally or any activity announced to the press. The only information I got was that Senator Villar met with Mayor Jerry Treñas, the Nacionalista candidate for the Lone District of Iloilo City. But what went on during their closed-door, one-on-one meeting was not divulged to the public.

What I do know is this: after his quick visit to Iloilo Senator Villar decided that he will no longer release any campaign funds to Mayor Treñas. This is the information I got from a very good source in Manila. My source said that the primary reason for Senator Villar’s sudden “change of heart” is Mayor Treñas’s continued inability to deliver on his earlier commitments. The source explained that late last year, Mayor Treñas committed to Senator Villar that he can deliver at least ninety (90) of Iloilo City’s one hundred eighty (180) barangay captains to support his presidential candidacy. This was the reason why Villar chose to draft him as the Nacionalista congressional candidate and why he will lend him financial support. But in exchange for the campaign funds, Villar wanted Treñas to demonstrate his political mettle by organizing a meeting with his purported 90 barangay chieftains. The gathering was intended as a “show of force,” an actual demonstration of his political power in Iloilo City. Recall that several weeks ago the Treñas camp did indeed attempt to organize a dinner meeting with Villar but even though they already enlisted the help of Tito Lopez, scion of the Albertito Lopez clan (who are also pro-Villar) and despite the fact that they did all sorts of cajoling just to convince the captains to come (they for example said, pang “national” lang ni, wala ni ya labot ang “local”), still the number of barangay captains who turned up at the said meeting was short of the promised 90.

So with only less than a month to go ‘til elections, the said “meet-and-greet” has yet to happen. My source said that Senator Villar may have finally lost patience in waiting for the promised meeting to happen and may have finally seen the light (“nasanagan” kung sa Ilonggo pa) that his local Nacionalista bet, an incumbent mayor at that, is not powerful enough to gather even just half of the barangay captains in his own city. My source added that Villar is first and foremost a businessman, and that he applies the same business principles to politics. In other words, if you cannot meet the terms of his contract, he will not pay you. It’s that simple.

It is now obvious that Mayor Treñas cannot meet his side of the bargain because Secretary Raul Gonzalez, Sr. has maintained his firm hold on the barangay captains. To date, 135 barangay chieftains are firmly with the Gonzalez camp. Out of the remaining forty five (45) barangay chairmen who are not with Gonzalezes, two (2) joined the camp of USec. Larry Jamora (namely, Gilbert Jamolo of Brgy Tanza, City Proper and Rafael “Chichoy” Palmares of Brgy. Magsaysay Village, Lapaz) while the rest are either with Mayor Treñas or Vice Mayor Mabilog (who are supporting two different presidents).

This latest development will surely have devastating effects on Team Uswag’s already flagging campaign. Without Senator Villar’s financial assistance, Mayor Treñas will have to dig deep into his own pockets to fulfil the logistical requirements of his campaign. Or maybe the local Chinese community, which during his incumbency became a very much favored and very powerful group, will come to his rescue and relieve him of his pecuniary predicament.

Holy Week in Guimaras