Resurgence of AM Radio

I just recently discovered that you can actually listen to your favorite AM and FM stations in Iloilo City thru the internet. I believe the techie term for it is "streaming." Now, Ilonggos living abroad and elsewhere who are longing for a piece of home can tune in to Bombo Radyo Iloilo, Aksyon Radyo Iloilo and DYRI-RMN and get updated on the latest goings-on in Iloilo City.

I don't know if this is unique to Iloilo City but unlike in other highly-urbanized areas like Manila, Quezon City or Cebu City where people now prefer to get their information from television, a considerable number of people in Iloilo still listen avidly to AM radio. Ilonggo deejays and radio commentators are still treated as celebrities wherever they go. Several of them in fact were able to parlay their media celebrity to win public office. In the Iloilo City Council for example, there are several members who made their names as hard-hitting radio commentators.

Radio streaming may very well signal the resurgence of AM radio, which in the past decades has lost a lot of its audience share to television.

Being "Matulungin sa Mahihirap" is the Ticket to Malacanang

Yesterday I went to the Senate to observe the hearing of the Committee on Local Government chaired by Senator Noynoy Aquino on several redistricting bills. Although the agenda did not include the Iloilo City redistricting bill, I was interested to get a "feel" on how hearings are being conducted by Senator Aquino. Senators Mar Roxas, Dick Gordon and Chiz Escudero were also present during the hearing along with several congressmen who were lobbying for the approval of their respective bills.

There were four (4) redistricting bills up for discussion that day: Puerto Princesa City, Iligan City, Lapu-Lapu City (Cebu) and Pangasinan. Right off, the proponents argued that since their local population have increased they are now entitled to more representation. Pangasinan for example, as Congressman Aguedo Agbayani pointed out, now has 2.7 million inhabitants but only six (6) representatives in Congress. If the Constitutional provision of one congressman per 250,000 Filipinos is to be followed, then Pangasinan he claimed should have ten (10) congressmen. Congresswoman Nerissa Soon-Ruiz likewise said that her district is one of the largest in the country, comprised of two highly-urbanized cities (Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu) plus Consolacion and Cordova towns. Thus, she is sponsoring a bill to give Lapu-Lapu City (where the Mactan Export Processing Zone is located) its own district representative.

The proponents for Iligan and Puerto Princesa likewise argued along "our population has increased" line and added that the P70 million-a-year pork barrel allocated for each district would go a long way to improve their area's infrastructure and services.

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Pulse Asia released its Ulat ng Bayan survey on presidentiables yesterday and it basically revealed the following:

1. The top presidential contenders are Noli de Castro (18%), Chiz Escudero, (17%) Erap Estrada (15%), Manny Villar (14%) and Mar Roxas (13%). Since surveys have a plus or minus 3% margin of error, the five are in a statistical tie. In other words, the 2010 election is "anybody's ballgame" and the winner in 2010 will most likely be the one who is able to consistently make the "correct" campaign decisions in the next twelve months.

2. Mar Roxas was the biggest gainer while Loren Legarda was the biggest loser. Pulse Asia notes that Noli de Castro, Erap Estrada and Manny Villar each lost a percentage point since their February 2009 poll. Whether this is just a fluke or an initial sign that they have "plateaud" Pulse Asia did not say. But one thing is clear from the survey: Mar Roxas must be doing something right for him to jump by 5 percentage points.

3. Traits that Filipinos look for in the next president. The Pulse Asia survey also tried to gauge what qualities the people are looking for in the next president and "Pagtulong/Pagsuporta/Pagtingin sa Mahihirap" easily was the most important trait because it got 27.3% of the respondents. On the other hand, traits like "Hindi Corrupt, Sinusugpo ang Nangungurakot," "Mabait/Mabuti/Disente," and "Matalino" got only 7.1%, 6.6% and 5% respectively. This might explain why Erap, despite having been convicted of plunder, continues to figure prominently in the surveys while Senator Ping Lacson, who has pegged himself as a no-nonsense anti-corruption champion, suffered a 2%-drop in his rating. This also partly explains why Legarda, who is trying to paint herself as the "green" candidate, suffered a tremendous drop - Filipinos simply don't care enough about the environment for them to decide their votes on the basis of whether the candidate is "makakalikasan" or not.

So it seems being perceived to be "matulungin sa mahihirap" is the next ticket to Malacanang. The presidentiables will now try to "out-Erap" Erap and people can expect to be deluged by another round of "TV infomercials" depicting concern for the poor and downtrodden in the coming months.

Positive Development on Redistricting Bill

I have it from a reliable source that the Committee on Local Government in the Senate had approved this week the bill adding another congressional district in the province of Camarines Sur. While this development is seemingly unrelated to Iloilo City, it nonetheless bodes well for the other redistricting bills languishing in the Upper Chamber. With the approval of the Camarines Sur bill, this means that all the other redistricting bills will now have to be acted upon also by the said Committee chaired by Senator Noynoy Aquino, among which is the bill redistricting Iloilo City.

I recall that Senator Aquino was at first adamant to pass bills creating new legislative districts, arguing that Congress might already be violating the Constitution if it continues to add districts well over the 250-members limitation stipulated in the Charter. So just to be safe, he requested both the House and Senate leadership to first enact a law increasing the membership of the House of Representatives from 250 to 350. Only then, Noynoy insisted, will he act on the various redistricting bills pending in his Committee.

But the recent Supreme Court ruling on the 32 party-list representatives (which effectively increased the House membership from 238 to 270) brought a new dimension to the issue. The same SC decision is now being interpreted by legislators as a tacit permission or go-signal for them to add more districts. Many feel it is no longer necessary to enact a law increasing their number to 350, as Senator Noynoy earlier requested. This is because the Constitution states that the House membership is limited to 250 "unless otherwise fixed by law." Therefore, if a new law or a Republic Act creating say, a new district in Iloilo City is enacted that will bring to 271 the total number of congressmen, then that new R.A. effectively changes the set up and now fixes the membership of the House to 271.

With this positive development in the Senate, Ilonggos can continue to hope that come 2010 Iloilo City will already have two congressmen.

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Speaking of the party-list, the victory of the 32 new representatives has inspired me into establishing my own party-list group to rival groups such us ANAKPAWIS. I'm thinking of calling it AMOY-PAWIS and the only condition for membership is for the aspiring member to only take a bath twice a week!

On a more serious note, I was surprised to learn that the real intention of the party-list system when it was enacted by Congress was not only to give the marginalized sectors a chance to participate in the policy-making process but ultimately to make them grow strong enough to challenge the "mainstream" political parties like the Lakas-Kampi, Liberal Party, NPC and Nacionalista parties. This is according to a study paper sponspored by the Ateneo School of Government/Konrad Adenauer Stiftung entitled "Is There a Party in the House?" by Edna Estifania Co. In her paper, Co recommends that the three-seat cap be scrapped to allow popular party-list groups to become large enough to challenge the traditional power blocs in Congress and maybe even field their own presidential/senatorial candidates in future elections.

Possible Team-Ups for 2010

1. Noli de Castro and Manny Villar. In the latest SWS survey (March 30, 2009), Vice President Noli de Castro and Senator Manny Villar were the top two presidentiables, garnering 27% and 26% respectively. If the two Wednesday Club buddies unite, they will be the team-to-beat this 2010 elections, moreso if they have the entire administration Lakas-Kampi machinery backing them up. Kabayan Noli is a candidate without a party while Lakas-Kampi is a party in search of a candidate, and many ranking Lakas-Kampi members find him acceptable because he is more "pliable." Villar on the other hand has the money and, more importantly, he knows how to use his money for maximum political mileage. But since he is now "tarred" by the double-insertion scandal, I wouldn't be surprised if his ratings will go down in the next quarterly surveys. It would probably be a wise move for him to slide down and become Noli's vice president and wait for his chances to improve, on or before 2016 (like what GMA did).

If Villar and de Castro do not reach a modus vivendi, there are a number of second-tier presidentiables they can pick as their running mate. The good-looking defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro or the competent Chairman BF Fernando, for example, would make a perfect vice president for the Kabayan (popularity and performance ang drama). For Villar, there's always Senator Kiko Pangilinan (another Wednesday Group buddy who announced recently his availability for the vice presidency) or his most-avid defender in the Senate, Alan Peter Cayetano.

2. Chiz Escudero and Loren Legarda. The two NPC stalwarts are both young, good-looking and popular - the same SWS survey showed Senator Legarda garnering 25% and Chiz Escudero a respectable 23%. Sometimes referred to as the "Obama of the Philippines," Chiz's rock star-looks and glib tongue endear him to the 20- and 30-something crowd (and this group now comprises 70% of our voting population) while Loren's movie star charm also makes her very appealing to the younger set. Both not only look good but also sound good on TV, and TV, more than any other media, will be the single strongest factor that will influence voters' preferences in the 2010 national race. With Danding's financial backing and NPC's disciplined support, any of the two could bag the presidency.

But in the aftermath of GMA's 9-year rule, many pundits observe that Filipinos will not be ready for yet another woman in Malacanang. While Loren may be popular, her estranged husband is currently in jail for homicide (only in the Philippines) and her opponents would surely raise the specter of another "rogue" First Gentleman in the Palace. Chiz meanwhile is perceived to be "too close" to Danding Cojuangco and this makes the other elites uncomfortable fearing a return to Marcosian times wherein all power and money were concentrated in the hands of a favored few.

I've heard the rumors that say a Chiz-Loren or Loren-Chiz team-up is virtually impossible because both are not willing to slide down. I see that in the event that negotiations between the two fail, the person who fails to bag Danding's support will definitely come out the loser. Without financial and party support, it would be too late in the game for either Chiz or Loren to put up a new party. Joining another party would also be out of the question because most already have their standard-bearers. So in the end, I predict that Chiz and Loren will ultimately abide by the NPC party decision because both have been boxed into a corner.

3. Mar Roxas and Ping Lacson. If Mar and Ping could somehow find enough common ground to unite, a Roxas-Lacson/Lacson-Roxas tandem can be a strong Third Force. From where I stand, Mar's economic savvy coupled with Ping's kamay na bakal - Mr. Palengke and Mr. Law & Order - is a perfect combination. Although Roxas got only 15% in the March 2009 survey, SWS noted that this figure represents a 5% increase since their last survey conducted in December 2008. If he continues on this trajectory Mar could very well find himself the frontrunner by December 2009. Although Ping Lacson's modest 14% rating is not impressive, his PR people argue that this represents a solid constituency, Ping die-hards who have never wavered in their support for the man no matter the brickbrats thrown at him by Malacanang.

Mar's elitist and segurista (cold and calculating) image are his main drawbacks. His impending marriage to media personality Korina Sanchez might refurbish that perception. Ping's greatest asset, his kamay the bakal, is at the same time his greatest drawback - while it inspires confidence in our authorities, it also brings fear to other people especially those traumatized by Martial Law. But in our multi-party system, you really need only 30% of the vote to win and Mar's 15% combined with Ping's solid 14% could secure them a win in 2010.

If the team-up does not materialize, Ping Lacson can always go solo again like he did in 2004. Mar Roxas can accede to the desire of his Liberal Party-mates and pick Kiko Pangilinan as his running mate.

Others. Our multi-party system will also embolden others to continue on their quest to capture the presidency. Senator Dick Gordon seem hell-bent on capturing Malacanang despite the fact that this will be his third attempt already I think. Former President Erap Estrada, who despite his ouster and conviction for plunder, still got a 13% rating in the SWS survey also seems very determined to run. Then there are the religious leaders Bro. Mike Velarde and Bro. Eddie Villanueva who think they can convert their cult following into votes. And then there are still the others, would-be reformers and idealists all, who promise to change our country with their "movements-movements," namely Governor Ed Panlilio's "Kaya Natin" Movement, Chief Justice Reynato Puno's "Moral Force" Movement and the latest, Manny Pangilinan's "Ako Mismo" Movement.

I have only listed three tandems because past experience shows that the Philippines only has room for three candidates. For one, political parties (and the businessmen who fund them) only have resources for three sets of candidates otherwise politics will no longer be a "profitable proposition" in the country. As things stand, only Lakas-Kampi has the capacity to field candidates in all positions from president to senators to congressmen down to municipal mayors and councilors. The NPC, Nacionalista and Liberal parties combined may be able to field candidates in 100% of the positions to be contested but individually will be hard put to do the same. In Iloilo City for example, the local race in the last 2007 elections was fought by candidates from Lakas-Kampi and the Liberal Party coalition while the Nacionalista and NPC party did not have a local ticket. A few years back, there was a study that came out showing that most Filipinos, when it comes to national offices (president, vice president and senators), remain undecided whom to vote for up until the day of election. If this study is true, then the importance of a nationwide party machinery is all the more important for a presidential candidate.

Moreover, the Philippine population seemingly only has attention span for three candidates. I observe that most undecided voters, when it is down to two weeks before election day, more often than not are usually focusing or have narrowed down their choice to only three candidates.