Don’t Overestimate Your Strengths, Never Underestimate Your Enemy

With barely a week to go many are saying that the elections in Iloilo City are all over save for the counting. Mayor Jerry’s campaign is currently hobbled by money problems and internal squabbling while Vice Mayor Jed is presently facing “resume padding” allegations. For his part Undersecretary Larry Jamora’s ratings seems to be picking up at the expense of Mabilog, but with only less than a week to go ‘til election day it is “too little too late.” Maybe if the campaign period was six months, Jamora would have a chance of winning. Thus, many coffee shop pundits are predicting a Gonzalez-Gonzalez-Pesina sweep following the disintegration of the Treñas and Mabilog camps and the meager uptick of Jamora’s rating.

This is probably the reason why almost no one in Iloilo wants to place a bet on Treñas and Mabilog. Ilonggos will bet on anything and there are a lot of “election betting” going on in the city right now. People are placing bets from as low as 100 pesos to several million pesos. My source at the DPWH told me that private contractors were setting up a P2 million pot but that the pro-Treñas and pro-Mabilog contractors backed out of the deal a week ago. The deal fell through because the pro-Treñas and pro-Mabilog contractors reportedly wanted only to bet on who will win in Arevalo, not in the entire city - suggesting that the Gonzalezes already have “locked-in” Jaro, Lapaz, Lapuz, Mandurriao, Molo and City Proper. Now I don’t know about you but I understand that DPWH contractors have very sharp political senses and I would put more credence on their reading of the political situation more than any “scientifically-done” mock poll or two-bit “survey-survey.”

As I see it, Mayor Treñas and Vice Mayor Mabilog made two grave errors: 1.) they underestimated their opponents and 2.) they both overestimated their strengths. These are two very basic rules in politics which even neophyte politicians know which Treñas and Mabilog in their hubris failed to observe. “How has it come to this?” is a question Mayor Jerry Treñas and Vice Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog must be probably ruing today.

At the onset of the campaign period, the two were quite popular and seemed very sure of winning. Recall that at the start of the campaign period, Congressman Raul Gonzalez, Jr. was being depicted by the Treñas camp as “lawlaw” while the old man Gonzalez was being derided by the Mabilog camp for his being “hindi na katuknol.” Since the father is “hindi na katuknol” and the son is “lawlaw,” Treñas and Mabilog must have thought that they could convince enough barangay leaders to abandon the Gonzalezes and join their quest for personal glory. But the Gonzalezes were able to answer the issues against them and their group has remained solid. Today no one is calling Congressman Gonzalez “lawlaw” anymore after he bared his impressive legislative track record (6 laws authored) while Secretary Gonzalez has on several occasions compellingly displayed that while his body is weak, his spirit (or “dungan”) is still very strong. And contrary to their expectations, the “Grupo Gonzalez” political machinery did not “implode” but remains as formidable as ever. It counts among its members 138 out of the total 180 Barangay Captains and majority of Barangay officials in the city, the 35,000-strong Women’s Brigade of Dra. Pacita Gonzalez, and the volunteer youth group ICYGG (Iloilo City Youth for Good Government) led by Dennis Gonzalez.

On the other hand, Mabilog could not satisfactorily answer the “resume padding” allegation against him. His answer – that he is a “late bloomer” – is seen by many as a further indication of his glibness and penchant for exaggerating his self-importance. It is the height of arrogance to compare one’s self to Bill Gates and Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who needless to say are giants in world history. (For the information of the good vice mayor, Churchill was not a drop-out. His grades were not good enough for Oxford University so he went to Sandhurst – Britain’s equivalent to our Philippine Military Academy here – where he graduated, earning a commission as a second lieutenant in the cavalry unit Our Queen’s Own Hussars. He then distinguished himself serving as a brave young officer in India, Egypt and South Africa during the Boer War. He parlayed his war exploits into a career in politics and the rest, as they say, is history.)

But Vice Mayor Mabilog’s problems is nothing compared to the problems Mayor Treñas is facing presently. It is said that Treñas fabricated the “security-threat” story so that he will have a valid reason to just stay in his house and not go out campaigning because he has already run out of funds. Various Treñas camp insiders have confirmed that Manny Villar’s money is not forthcoming and that the promised financial contributions from his beloved Chinese community was less than they expected. Money is the lifeblood of politics. Without money, the gears of politics will not roll so I don’t know how Mayor Treñas intends to win this election without sufficient money. That is why I believe, with things as they currently are in Iloilo City, that the elections are all but over save for the counting.

The Ten “Do Nots” of Iloilo City Politics

1. Do Not Make Promises You Cannot Deliver. A politician who habitually breaks a promise eventually loses credibility with the people and other politicians. “Word of honor” still counts for something in Iloilo politics and a politico who keeps his word is admired by the people. Before making a promise, you must first make sure that you can deliver on that promise. For example, do not promise that you can deliver 90 barangay captains when you have not yet secured their support.

2. Do Not Abuse Your Power. For example, dismissing 900-plus City Hall casuals just because you think they are “sympathizing with the enemy” is pure abuse of power. And hiring a new set of casuals (who presumably are “loyal” to you) and not paying them for three months is likely to be interpreted as another example of how politicians exercise their power capriciously. Nothing will get people to hate you more than by depriving them and delaying their incomes. Firing old but “disloyal” employees and replacing them with new but supposedly “loyal” ones definitely is not good politics. Good politics is all about gaining friends, not enemies.

3. Do Not Fabricate “Scenarios” Just to Win Public Sympathy. Although Ilonggos are suckers for underdogs and “victims,” they are also a very cynical people who are quick to spot fakers. Ilonggo voters are very sophisticated and they instinctively know when a politician is trying to manipulate their feelings. For instance, claiming that your opponent hired assassins to kill you and ordered goons to bomb your properties may initially elicit public sympathy but it takes more than just “acoustic warfare” to earn their vote, especially if the PNP investigation report suggests that all the supposed incidents were “self-inflicted.” If you really need to make up “scenarios” to improve your electoral chances, better make sure that the people you get to do the job are professionals, not amateurs.

4. Do Not Coerce People to Vote For You. Nothing gets the Ilonggo’s goat more than the “Vote-or-Gabot” style of politics. One modern-day variation of this “Vote-or-Gabot” method is the following: ordering all your traffic aides to apprehend jeepney drivers indiscriminately and when they come to your office to claim their driver’s licenses, tell them that they will not have to pay the 300 pesos traffic penalty if they promise to vote for you. Another variation is by requiring City Hall casuals to attend your pulong pulongs and imposing a “No Attendance, No Salary” policy. Extracting political support thru coercion maybe be effective in Maguindanao but is not applicable in Iloilo City.

5. Do Not Weep in Public. In Ilonggo culture, it is only acceptable for a fully-grown man to cry when a close friend or a beloved family member dies. A man who weeps in public over minor things is perceived to be a wimp since crying is seen in our culture as a sign of weakness. Also, the masses already have enough problems of their own. Therefore, downloading all your woes, telling them about your difficulties and problems will not earn you their sympathy. On the contrary, it will only earn their contempt – “Sala mo na kay nag intra intra ka sa pulitika,” is a common snide remark. This is because people come to a pulong pulong to hear what the candidate can do for them, not to listen to his personal problems.

6. Do Not Flaunt the Law. We Ilonggos hate politicians who feel that they are above the law so much that we even invented a term for it – “waslik poder.” A seemingly minor matter like violating an anti-smoking ordinance can have disastrous effects on a politician’s credibility and public standing. In Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (where they also have an anti-smoking and anti-littering ordinance), people worship Mayor Edward Hagedorn (who is a cigarette smoker) because he abides by the law. Like any other ordinary citizen, he allowed himself to be penalized after a streetsweeper (in the employ of City Hall!) caught him throwing his cigarette butt on the street. Today, Puerto Princesa City is one of the cleanest cities in the Philippines because everyone follows the rules, but only after their mayor demonstrated (in a seemingly trivial way) that no one in his city is above the law.

7. Do Not Believe Your Own Hype. Time and again it has been proven that “investing” in expensive opinion surveys and “retaining” discredited media hacks to boost your public ratings is a total waste of money. Experience has shown that “word-of-mouth” campaigning is still the most effective method of campaigning at the local level. Try asking someone why they are voting for a particular candidate. Chances are he will tell you that he was approached and convinced by someone in his community - a family member, a childhood friend, a classmate, a professional colleague or business partner, his barangay captain, etc.

8. Do Not “Pad” Your Track Record. Exaggerating your achievements, grabbing credit for something you did not do, “padding” your educational credentials, etc. is a no-no in politics because sooner or later someone will find out (especially in a city as small as Iloilo) and tell the media about it. Again, Ilonggos have a word to describe this type of politician – “switik.” A “switik” is a highly charismatic person who passes himself off as something he is not (i.e. a “Harvard graduate” and “outstanding politician”) for personal gain. I believe the English equivalent of the word “switik” is “swindler” or “hustler” and the Tagalog term for it is “mangloloko” or “bolero.” Ilonggos, for obvious reasons, avoid “switiks” like the plague.

9. Do Not Be Loyal Only to Your Self. For political butterflies and opportunists, the name of the game (especially during the final days of the campaign period) is “salbaranay lawas.” “Saving yourself” may be well and good when your ship is sinking but if applied to politics will only result to mutual distrust, disunity, betrayal and eventually, electoral defeat. Thus, “salbaranay lawas” is not good politics in the long run.

10. Do Not Bite the Hand That Feeds You. In politics, loyalty is everything. A politician who betrays his master cannot be trusted. Ilonggos dislike intensely individuals who do not know how to pay their debts of gratitude. Thus, a politician who is perceived to be a “traidor kag wala kabalaslan” will not get far in politics.

Gonzalez Sr. May Be Weak But His “Dungan” Is Still Very Strong

In her pioneering study on the Ilonggo concept of the “dungan” and the “dunganon nga tawo,” UP-Visayas anthropologist Alicia Magos defined dungan as "a life force, an energy, as well as an ethereal entity, a spirit with a will of its own that resides in the human body and provides the essence of life. Apart from denoting an alter ego and soul stuff, the dungan as presently understood refers to such personal attributes as willpower, knowledge and intelligence, and even the ability to dominate and persuade others. (Magos 1992, 47-50)." According to Professor Magos, everyone is born with a dungan albeit of varying strengths or "force levels" and only a lucky few are blessed with a very strong “dungan.” If this sounds vaguely familiar to you, it is because the Ilonggo concept of the “dungan” finds many parallels in other cultures. The Chinese call it the chí, Christian doctrine calls it the soul (or spirit if you will) and even Hollywood, in the blockbuster sci fi movie Star Wars, dub it simply as "The Force."

Under the primordial Ilonggo concept of the “dungan,” life is seen as a constant battle for ascendancy between and among people of varying levels of “dungan.” This is why we Ilonggos have a term – “naunahan dungan” – to describe this constant, everyday clash between embodied spirits. This belief in the “dungan” is further illustrated in our belief in “usog” wherein an adult causes a newly-born infant to get sick because an adult’s fully-developed “dungan” supposedly overwhelms a baby’s still weak “dungan.” Thus, to prevent “usog,” old folks believe that parents should apply a dab of their saliva on the forehead of their baby.

While the concept of the “dungan” is easily defined, the concept of the “dunganon nga tawo” escapes simple characterization because it changes thru time and place. In the pre-Spanish days for example, the datu and the babaylan were the epitomes of the “dunganon nga tawo.” The tribal chieftain, with his wisdom, courage and luck in battle, symbolized mastery of the temporal world while the babaylan was worshiped for his/her mastery over the unseen, spiritual world. During the Spanish period, the friar replaced the datu and the babaylan as the “dunganon nga tawo” in Philippine society. But while the Spanish friar dominated and influenced both the temporal and spiritual affairs of their Philippine colony, a few Indios of indomitable spirit and of very strong “dungan” dared challenge Spanish hegemony over our islands. Thus, common bandits and millenarian cultists (like Papa Isio of Mt. Kanlaon for instance) were regarded, in the eyes of the common tao at that time, also as “mga dunganon nga tawo.” In present-day Philippine society, the concept of the “dunganon nga tawo” has morphed into something less visceral. For example, people today admire “moral” courage more than “physical” courage, luck in business and success in one’s chosen profession more than independent-mindedness or rebelliousness against established authority. While our present-day concept of the “dunganon nga tawo” may change thru time, suffice it to say that the typical Ilonggo instinctively knows a “dunganon nga tawo” when he sees one.

Understanding the twin concepts of “dungan” and the “dunganon nga tawo” is very important if we want to understand why Filipinos vote the way they do. During the previous 2007 elections for example, many were surprised when Magdalo rebel Antonio Trillanes IV won as senator despite the fact the he was in jail and had limited campaign funds. But if viewed from this perspective, Trillanes fits the traditional mold of the “dunganon nga tawo” – a fearless and heroic young man who dared to challenge a corrupt government – and this I believe is the primary reason why Filipinos voted for him in the last elections.

This is why I believe Secretary Raul Gonzalez Sr. will win as mayor in the coming elections because, notwithstanding his advanced age, everyone in Iloilo City can see that his “dungan” is still very strong. Epitomizing the classic “dunganon nga tawo” of the datu mold, the old man still inspires respect, fear and admiration both from his opponents and supporters alike. His closest opponent Vice Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog, who in turn enjoys a “babaylan-like” popularity, has miserably failed to prove that his “dungan” is stronger than Gonzalez. In fact, the current joke going around is that, after being pelted with stones during one of his barangay “pulong-pulongs,” Mabilog is now going around campaigning wearing a helmet.

Jed Mabilog’s “Dungan” is Weak

Last Sunday I was listening to the radio blocktime program of Panay News publisher Danny Fajardo over Aksyon Radyo. His guests were, as usual, Vice Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog and Councilor Julienne “Jam Jam” Baronda who are running for mayor and vice mayor respectively under Team Palangga ticket. Although they are running-mates, Mabilog is running under the Noynoy-Mar banner of the Liberal Party while Jam Jam is supporting Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP). In the middle of the program, Mr. Fajardo interrupted their on-air chat to interview a former housemaid of Korina Sanchez. Upon the able prodding of Mr. Fajardo, the maid (who is obviously a disgruntled former employee) proceeded to say a lot of awful things about Korina which I will no longer amplify in this column. Suffice it to say that listening to the maid’s “testimony” was enough to make Mr. Fajardo exclaim “manyak gali na si Korina!” (Korina is such a sex maniac!)

The segment was obviously a demolition job paid for by political operators of Loren Legarda not really to destroy Korina Sanchez (who was her former colleague at ABS CBN) but more to convince voters not to vote for Mar Roxas. As of now, all surveys state that Roxas leads Legarda by a wide margin and the conventional wisdom is that the election for the Vice Presidency is but a mere formality. So I am not really surprised that the Legarda camp is coming out with a last-ditch effort to erode Mar’s ratings by attacking his new bride Korina Sanchez. That is par for the course in politics. What I actually found more surprising is Jed Mabilog’s reaction (or more appropriately, “non-reaction”) to the black propaganda against Korina Sanchez.

Jed Mabilog is the standard bearer of the Liberal Party in Iloilo City and Korina Sanchez is the wife of his vice president, Mar Roxas. The least he could have done was to say something in defense of Korina (i.e. “that’s all in the past, Danny”) or if he was unable to find the words ("naunahan dungan niya") he could have chosen to walk out of the interview to register his disgust. But while Korina’s reputation was being ravaged by Danny Fajardo, Vice Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog just stood by and watched. He just sat there and listened while the wife of his vice president was being bludgeoned on air. And after the 30-minute or so anti-Korina propaganda, Danny and Jed carried on with their on-air interview like nothing happened. All I can say to Mar Roxas is: with allies like Jed, you do not need enemies. Instances like this and countless other occasions have led me to the conclusion that Jed Mabilog lacks the “spine” to become a good mayor. Not only does he lack the brains but more importantly he lacks the guts to become a truly exceptional mayor. Just imagine if say Secretary Raul Gonzalez or USec. Larry Jamora was Mr. Fajardo’s guest and it was Nikki Teodoro who was being subjected to black propaganda. I am quite sure that Secretary Gonzalez would let his objections be heard (to put it mildly) and even reprimand Danny Fajardo on-air for his un-gentlemanlike behaviour.

Another example that could give us an insight into the character of Mabilog is the recent incident in Barangay Kasing-Kasing wherein the barangay chairwoman (who was pro-Gonzalez) tried to stop the caucus of Team Palangga because they did not ask for prior permission. Harsh words, verbal threats were exchanged and when someone threw a big rock at the contending camps, the meeting was halted. I was told that Mabilog that night was already on his way to Barangay Kasing-Kasing to join his Palangga team-mates but, upon being told that there was trouble brewing there by his advance staff, decided not go there anymore. Again, naunahan na naman dungan niya. Now imagine again if it was Secretary Gonzalez who found himself in that exact same situation. Knowing the old man’s character, I am quite sure that he would have proceeded to Kasing-Kasing knowing that his mere presence would have calmed the hotheads and restore order.

In other words, Secretary Gonzalez may be old and weak but everyone can see that his spirit, his “dungan,” is still very strong. You can see and feel it when the old man enters the room - everyone instinctively stops talking and automatically stand up in deference to him. Despite his advanced age, Gonzalez still inspires respect and commands fear both from opponents and supporters alike. He intellectually dominates any discussion and can convince people to do what he wants. Jed Mabilog on the other hand may be younger and more energetic than Gonzalez, but everyone can see that his “dungan” is weak. Pirmi lang siya kakaunahan dungan. Unlike Gonzalez, Mabilog could not intellectually dominate a debate or even just a small tableside discussion. He also does not inspire fear and command respect from the people. Far from it, people often ridicule him as “agi” (gay) not really because he likes to have sex with men but more because of his “wishy-washy, showbiz-style” and “so eager to please the public” type of politics.

If you look at Arsenio Lacson and Alfredo Lim of Manila, Rudy Duterte of Davao City, Jesse Robredo of Naga City, Bayani Fernando of Marikina City, Tommy Osmena of Cebu City, Roding Ganzon of Iloilo City and all the other great mayors past and present, they all have one thing in common: a very strong “dungan.” They were men of strong will and indomitable spirit – mga “dunganon nga tawo.” A mayor’s job often involves making people to do something they don’t want to do and a good mayor is one who is never afraid to make unpopular decisions if it would eventually result in the greater good of his city. Ermita would have still been a red light district, Marikina would still have been a squatter’s haven , Naga and Cebu City would still have been a sleepy provincial city if Mayors Lim, Fernando, Robredo and Osmena listened to detractors and other “bleeding-heart” groups. And Jed Patrick Mabilog, I am sorry to say this, doesn’t fit the mold of the “dunganon nga tawo” and he just doesn’t have the right stuff to become a good mayor of our city.